Analyses

By Christian Pelfrey, Pulitzer Center on Crisis Reporting

July 07, 2010 (SSNA) — From a practical standpoint, it may be difficult to see any strategic value in Sudan.

Sudan is deeply divided along almost every line imaginable. Clashes between North and South, East and West, Christian and Muslim, center and periphery and local tribal rivalries have created a fractured state at best and a broken state at worst. In 2008, the International Criminal Court indicted Sudanese President Omar Al-Bashir on war crimes charges. The international community largely agrees that the April 2010 elections were not only inconsistent but rigged. Most observers predict that the upcoming 2011 referendum for Southern secession will lead to renewed violence and social upheaval regardless of outcome if conditions continue as they are now.

All of these factors clearly indicate the need for humanitarian aid that many organizations like the Save Darfur Coalition and the United Nations already strive to provide, with varying levels of success. What is most surprising, however, is the fact that the United States government has taken an interest in Sudanese relief efforts and in engaging with the Sudanese government.

From an international security standpoint it would seem that the United States is wasting its time in Sudan. Why does the United States government care about a messy and fractured country 6,500 miles away? Why does it care that Sudan is peaceful when Sudanese violence does not directly affect American national security?

Here are three reasons Sudan is important to the world of international security:

Oil

Sudan has enormous oil reserves–over 6 billion barrels discovered so far. Most of the oil fields are in South Sudan but the government in the North controls most of the refinement facilities. The only port cities are in the North, since the southern border is landlocked.  Because the North relies on Southern crude oil and the South relies on Northern transportation and refinement, peace is essential for Sudan’s oil production. This symbiotic relationship is tenuous even during peacetime and violence would upset this fragile balance, leading to economic hardship for both North and South Sudan.

The dependence on Middle Eastern oil has led to a number of costly problems for the international community and diversifying the international oil supply keeps one country or region from controlling global energy. Sudan has an enormous potential to provide the world with energy and adding another African oil partner to its list of providers is not only wise but preferable. Maintaining the peace in Sudan before and after the referendum vote will protect the fragile oil relationship between the North and the South and keep Sudan supplying the world with oil.

Geographic Location

Sudan also has a unique and important position on the African continent, since it is the largest country in Africa and comparable in size to Western Europe. It borders nine countries: Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Democratic Republic of Congo, Central African Republic, Chad and Libya. It contains much of the Nile River (both the Blue Nile and White Nile) and it borders the Red Sea to the east.

Access to these countries and to these water ways gives Sudan great strategic worth. Much of the world’s oil imports travel through the Red Sea by way of either the Suez Canal to the north or the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait to the south. The Red Sea has recently seen increased pirate attacks and Eritrea has seen rising terrorist activity, both of which threaten global shipping in the area. A strong partnership with Sudan would allow the world to protect its imports in the Red Sea and increase its ability to fight extremism and terrorism in Eritrea.

Using Sudan as a base of operations, however, is only realistic if the country is relatively peaceful and more internal conflict would prevent this. The international community cannot station troops or organizations in Sudan if the organizations were forced to defend themselves against Sudanese threats as well.

By Daniel A. Daniel, USA

"It is said an Eastern monarch once charged his wise men to invent him a sentence to be ever in view, and which should be true and appropriate in all times and situations. They presented him the words: "And this, too, shall pass away." ~ Abraham Lincoln

June 14, 2010 (SSNA) — Not surprising, now a days, every forum in South Sudan’s rightfully engaged with the Referendum and the subsequent secession, both within just a few months, specifically, on Sunday, January 9th 2011. No indications that the debate will die out anytime soon, between the so-called unionists and separatists, as one of the web-writers’ suggested. In my judgment, the debate should be about substance, not rhetoric. All honest Southerners have a critical role to play in educating our people about their rights for self-determination and the importance of our unity, at this difficult juncture in the history of our nation.

It’s been said all along that: “If you don’t have anything good to say about something or somebody, don’t say anything." A few years back while Dr. Lam Akol Ajawin, then Minister of Roads and Transportation was on an official visit to India, he was asked (by then Law’s PhD student and brother of Ustaz Ali Osman Mohamed Taha) Abdulmunam Mohammad Taha, as to why when he (Lam) his voice was heard loudly and clearly, when he was with the SPLM/A then being a cabinet minister with Ingaz?

Dr. Lam gesticulated, and answers him: “The voice of opposition is always louder than that of the government." " Good news is not a news, but bad news is the news that people always want to hear," " I am now talking about peace and tranquility, but before, I was talking about war and the horror of war," he went on to say. Certainly, I hope Dr. Akol remembers those words and learn that in this Internet era, no one gets away, even with a slip of a tongue. The time for Cats-and- mouses games with South’s unity is over.

As I wrote in my previous articles, unity- any unity- is a matter of mutual respect and understanding among those who thrive to live in unity. But the current state of the affairs of unity in Sudan, where the Northerners ridiculously and unrealistically believe that (you) must be a Muslim and an Arab to be granted full citizenship rights will never be accepted by any free minded South Sudan.

Therefore, the debate must now shift to the referendum and the secession thereafter. The remaining seven months are not sufficient to fish around talking about a unity that was not there in the first place.

Coming to my previous article, I came under some unfounded attack by my friend Kwathi Akol Ajawien (step brother of Dr. Lam Akol Ajawien). Quite honestly, I tried not to say anything about his alleged accusations, simply because many commentators said it all. But as I mentioned before, we cannot afford to be silent, because silence in itself, is a sign of acceptance, therefore, I would like to mention just few points in rebuttal to the “Born again Christian, Kwathi Ajawin.

In an angry e-mail I received from him, in the aftermath of my article, Kwathi allegedly wrote that I said in my article that, and I quote: “The Shiluk’re a greedy minority and grabbing their land is justified."

As you can see, I was enraged, and for a good reason. First and foremost, am not the type of a person who would utter such demeaning words against one of the most respected kingdom in our land. Moreover, as a teacher’s son, I’d lived in Shiluk’s areas and went to school with their children, and I didn’t see anything not to be liked about the Shiluk’s nation. Besides, anyone who would suggest that Shiluk are a minority in South Sudan, that person doesn’t live in the real world in which we live.

Yet, in my opinion, brother Kwathi Ajawien is an innocent man until proven guilty. I think that he really is a victim of a crime he didn’t commit. Do you know why? Because he is not the one that sent that e-mail message. His e-mail address was nowhere to be seen, which is unusual and suspicious. But never mind, I’ve figured out the author and the actual architect. His cowardice act is called it in Criminal Justice system as a forgery of identity, and is punishable by the laws of the land.

Furthermore, we all need to remember that the SPLA is our national army, whose members are our brave sons and daughters. I get angry when some folks within our communities celebrate whenever the SPLA loses some of its men in their battles against the enemies of our unity just as one of them wrote this following statement: “The SPLA was badly defeated by some gun men who killed 9 from them." That’s as treacherous as it gets.

As one people, we need to move and pass this dark chapter, and in a hurry!

And yes, I’ve mentioned in my previous article, giving Ustaz/ Ali Osman the green light by Government of South Sudan (GOSS), to crusade and preach the unattractive unity, is not healthy at all, and the SPLM must recant its position as quickly as possible. The last thing we need is another extremist to tear us apart on tribal line. It’s time to tell the North: enough’s enough.

My advice to every Southerner out there is: If the Arabs make the mistake in trying to bribe you, please don’t feel guilty and don’t hesitate to take their money, but you need to keep on walking to ballet box and cast your precious vote for secession. After all that money was stolen property from us over the course of more than half a century long and counting.