Ethiopia Will Lose its Hegemony in East Africa if it Doesn’t Address Museveni Greed

By Pel K. Chol

Australia, February 10, 2014 (SSNA) — Ethiopia is the second populous nation in the continent and a most populous in East Africa with a population of 85 million equaling the total population of Kenya, South Sudan and Uganda put together. The country is the fourth largest economy in the continent recently surpassing Kenya, making it the largest economy in East Africa.

Such combined are ideal blessings for any nation to keep its hegemony to a certain extent so as to protect its interests. Ethiopia, being a champion of Africa is blessed with such ideals in a multi dimensional ways, population size, economic wise and military strength, must not turn a blind eye on the situation of South Sudan otherwise it will lose its status if it allows Museveni to do what he likes doing ruining the lives of so many people in Uganda’s neighboring countries one of which is DR Congo where over four million people have died in spate of four years, more than those who died in the second world war.

Ethiopia, being a democratic nation with a strong constitution honored and respected by all Ethiopians, would have every right to tell Museveni to bugger off and let South Sudanese decide themselves their own future.  If he (Museveni) got involved as a matter of keeping the neighborhood quiet, then Ethiopia would have every right to use the same phrase too because its borderline with South Sudan is far lengthier than that of South Sudan with Uganda and any noise Uganda may experience as a result of such conflict might also be felt by Ethiopia, Kenya, DR Congo and the Sudan requiring a bilateral response.

However, none of these is an issue which got Museveni involved in the conflict. Rather a friendship and a blood thirst. But what Museveni misunderstands is that he is backing the wrong side. Perhaps, not so wrong in his judgment because Museveni himself has been locking up and killing his political opponents.

The pretext Kiir told the world is now obvious. It is true that the coup attempt was a fabrication and a cover up of his ill conceived policies about what atrocities and gross human rights violations his Gogrial thugs had committed against Nuer civilians in Juba. Yet again he had tried very hard to divert public opinions of his alleged coup thinking that the majority of world leaders are as fool and delusional as his friend Museveni to believe him.

Upon that fateful night, for many innocent victims, many peace loving generals in the army who want to hold Kiir to account for his actions fought back to get rid of him.  While Juba was about to fall, Kiir had ran to Uganda for help to keep him in power.

This shows how unpopular this dude is and that is why Ethiopia would need to intervene whatever way possible because if Kiir was a popular President among the South Sudanese, he would not have sought external support from  Uganda or Sudanese rebels operating inside South Sudan territory who are all now terrorizing Jonglei, Unity and the Upper Nile States. 

Another reason why Ethiopia can support Dr. Riek is because Dr. Riek has the backing of the majority of South Sudanese who all stand behind him including some prominent figures such as Rebecca Nyandeng, Deng Alor, Majack Agot, Lol Gatkuoth, Pagam Amum and many more.

Ethiopia must understand that the political situation in South Sudan is not a contention over leadership between Nuer and Dinka. Rather it is a quest for justice and establishment of a true democracy in South Sudan between democratic sympathizers, Dinkas included and a brutal dictator who acts like Isaias Afewerki of Eritrea whose rule has now emerged as an iron fist and crush who ever dare questioning his leadership style. Ethiopia would have nothing to lose if it chooses to push Museveni out of South Sudan. Rather it will gain an admiration from the majority of South Sudanese who are exhausted with Kiir and Museveni.

Kiir himself does not know any clue about the rule of law and what democratic principles are. This reveals why his administration is at odd with his SPLA party members majority of whom were educated in USA, UK and Australia holding masters and Ph degrees while Kiir does not even have an elementary certificate. The December 15 violence is an indicative of his illiteracy thinking that when he is the president of the Republic, then everyone else is useless and should listen to him. That is why he formed a private army with military unaware of that and ordered this illegitimate army to disarm members of the real army. When they resisted then he said it was a coup and it is Dr. Riek’s fault and his team who see his policies as a cancer to the nation.

All of Dr. Riek’s team including thoseKiir had jailed and those who ran for their lives now staging rebellion have sound knowledge of democratic governance and at best would work very well with the Ethiopian government should they get support and form a government . They felt victims to Kiir simply because of their wise knowledge about how democratic system should work in South Sudan.

Ethiopia must intervene to help restore democracy in South Sudan because if Museveni continue his military involvement in South Sudan, then Museveni would be the strongest man in East Africa by default worse than Idi Amin. To me and many other democratic sympathizers in South Sudan, Museveni does not deserve that connotation. He watered down democracy in Uganda, now he wants to water down democracy in South Sudan and East Africa in general.

How could anyone be certain that what he started in Congo, Rwanda, Burundi and Somalia is going to stop in South Sudan? As long as IGAD and the West turns a blind eye and deaf hear on his evil tactics and resource seek meddling, he can make things as bad as hell wherever he wants to. Obviously, he created carnage in DR Congo, Rwanda and Burundi and Somalia in the eyes of USA and her allies and yet no one condemned his evil favoritism. Let not underestimate that he could help change the regime in Sudan and also destroy wonderful democracy Ethiopia is now enjoying by supporting OLF being assisted by his mercenary Ugandan Peoples Defense Force (UPDF).

Hence, Ethiopia must intervene before Musevini’s tail even grows longer or else it would be too late to cut. Currently the mighty Ethiopian army would have no match with Uganda army.

If the freedom fighters far from being a standing army could inflict pain and suffering on Ugandan military with tanks and attack helicopters, then how could they match a mighty Ethiopian force.

My advice to Ethiopia is that they should intervene for your own hegemony, defense of democracy, and stability of East Africa. Ethiopia!  Intervene and get Museveni out of South Sudan.

The author is a post graduate student in the Centre of Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism he could be reached on [email protected].

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