June 15, 2014 (SSNA) — As Arabic proverb says, "you can cheat your way through to get lunch but you cannot cheat again for supper". President Kiir appear on air all over the world on 16th December 2013 in a military attire to tell the world that there was a coup, "those of Riak Machar and his men ‘inu’ attempted a fail coup" said Kiir. The world was never foolish to be dragged into singing a coup song which holds no water; instead, they let the dogs barks while examining what makes them barks. The formation of "coup convincing mission" that sent several high level delegations to western world proved futile, I was following Marial Barnaba’s presentation in Chatham house in London on Twitter and I can only tell you the mission will be remembered only in financial reports of south Sudan for its expenses not for any fruits. The hiring of an International Relation firm to convince the west did not furnish well the government’s narration of the coup and proved futile too. The hiring of TB Joshua, the infamous Nigerian pastor (or witch doctor) with the hope that his spiritual powers will equalize that of Ngundeng remained a nightmare. All these futile missions and hiring exhausted the account of south Sudan government making it, not only bankrupt, but desperate too.
The recent developments that follow-suit one after the other in the politics of south Sudan is a force to reckon with and are clear indications that the government in Juba has been shown the exit door by the fed-up citizens of south Sudan. I arrived at this conclusion though logicians will wonder how I arrived there without valid premises, this is "inference". By observing the development around, one will conclude this without having to apply sophisticated logic. Just as the Bible says, when salt loses its saltiness, it is very impossible to make it salty again. Chemistry would call it irreversible reaction. The government in south Sudan loses touch with reality and all they have to say is to lie to citizens, to the world, and even to themselves. Lies are never in unison as long as they comes from different mouths, you can imagine people like Makuei Lueth, Marial Benjamin, Ateny Wek, Philip Aguer and the president himself, all gives different account of the same thing. That is why they keep denying what has gone into public’s ears. John Kariamiti says, "repeat a lie several times and it will become true, but to yourself". These lies to them make sense but not knowing the impact they inflicts on them in the eyes of the public as well as international community.
One of the indicators that let me arrived at the conclusion that the Juba government is coming to an end is the mass defection to rebel side. A dozen lawmakers recently declared their defection to rebel side and criticized the government for dictatorial tendency. These lawmakers almost represent all parts of south Sudan’s three greaters, including the greater Bahr El Ghazel, the home to president Kiir.
Parliament represents the views of the citizens. It is obvious that the decision they took is the decision of their constituencies. The whole parliament would have defected had they been truly representing their people’s views, but some of them played numb with an empty promise of becoming a millionaire overnight. Those who did not defected all had one fear in common, all of them have either patched education background or forgery documents which will make them not sellable in Dr. Machar’s "meritocracy" government that assign a position base on merit, because you can manage it not only because you are "loyal" to the regime.
The second blow to the government is the defection of the renowned general Dau Aturjong who is a symbol of peace between the Dinka and their brothers, the Nuer, as well as a threat to Juba government. To tell the world that Juba government is a "Government of Self Services" (GOSS) as they call it, Gen. Dau’s defection with a huge number of state lawmakers is another indication that the populace is fed up with Kiir’s lootocracy regime. General Dau’s popularity and bravery proved beyond reasonable doubt as the faces of Dinka changed in northern Bahr El Ghazel. The fact that he is known as a man of fewer words and more actions made the government doubt its very existence in the foreseeable future. The political equation in south Sudan for the rebels is now complete, with Gore becoming a second man in command. I am sure Aturjong will have his third place open to represent Greater Bahr El Ghazel, all the three greaters are represented. For those who misunderstood Dau as being submitting to Dr. Machar, he is not submitting but pursuing his own cause, which is the freedom of his people who have been marginalized to the point that they don’t know our flag was raised. In politics, if you share the same objectives you team up to achieve those objectives and that is what Dau and Machar are doing. It is never a politics of "Lead and follow" as in Juba, it is a politics of "co-working" that gives all of them an equal right in decision making. A democracy in making.
The third indicator is the treatment with a cool shoulder of the Juba government by the international community including the IGAD is another indication that the regime has no ally accepts China who is chasing after the oil. Remember this logic, if someone loves you because he benefits from you, that love will end immediately you have nothing to offer. This is in the case of Uganda. People say love is blind but for how long does it remain blind they never tells. Well, let me tell you, love is surely blind but not long before problems pop in; love begins to see when there is scarcity. You can’t imagine that honey moon between Uganda and south Sudan is coming to a shaky stage to the point that Museveni denied the coup. Wonders! They will never cease. The reception of Dr Machar in Nairobi with red carpet and all the diplomacy that had never been offered to President Kiir is another indicator. The Kenyan were overwhelmed by this rare occasion, I quote the citizen TV’s headline, "President Kenyatta today received south Sudan president Dr. Machar in the state house" what! Though it might be typos, it is actually a prelude of what is going to happen soon and as well an insult to Kiir. The misinformed Kenyan president was very surprised as he was listening to Machar’s account of all that transpired in Juba, he can’t help controlling his feeling of admiration to a democratic political reformist in the name of Dr. Machar.
"Kumbe! All the nonsense I have been hearing was mere fabrications? The truth had finally come!" I believe he said.
The supports attracted by the idea of federalism in greater equatoria are another indicator that isolated Kiir’s government. The equatorian, as peace loving community, had been crying for federalism since 1947 and this have always been thrown into dustbin. In south Sudan if you are a peacemaker you are a victim and people takes advantage of you, calling you a coward, equatorian are hosting thousands of Bor IDPs since 1983. It is unimaginable that someone could be an IDP for 31 years, I don’t know if this exists according to UNHCR but all I know is that they would have been declared refugees if at all they can’t go back to their land and the UNHCR could take care of them instead of Equatorian. The land grabbing in Juba is another thing that Equatorian could not tolerated, knowing that federalism is the only answer, they have to buy it at any cost whatsoever. This suffocates the government in one way or another as most of the Equatorian are fearless nowadays, they launches massive campaign through radios, TVs and meetings. This is threatening the Juba government as any action to stop this will not soothe it but escalate it, instead. If not because Kiir’s wings have been clipped off, he would have removed Wani Konga two weeks ago for the very negative speeches he gave that goes contrary to that of Kiir. The decrees are ceasing as the exit is nearing.
The desertion of the posts by the SPLA because of salaries is the worst indicator that the government will regret. SPLA have been used for a long time as tools to protect individuals greediness and selfish interest. Poor SPLA! They thought they are protecting their country, committed to it and not a single of them could afford to take his child to school as their family struggles to make both ends meet back home. Their children remained illiterate only to come and protect the children of their selfish leaders in the future. Thousands of oil money being spends on UPDF and the SPLA are starving to death. Having not received the salaries since January, the SPLA decided to desert the frontline and headed for their home areas where they will cultivates for their families and says hell with the government that do not care about them as human beings who also have responsibilities. Now Kiir’s frontline is as weak as a tooth of an old woman.
All these indicators renders the government in Juba illegitimate and vulnerable to a "Hopson’s choice" because whatever course they choose, whether peace or war, they would be fighting at the losing edge. In any address they delivered, they keep retorting to singing the rhythmic of, "democratically elected government". Who doesn’t know that Kiir was elected? But does this mean he can kill citizens at will? I always watch them dance to this melody whose lyrics is in Greek, if not Hebrew, and I can’t help telling them that the drum they are dancing to has already been turned, that they are just flogging a dead horse. For sure, give a mad man a leaking drum to fill and he will work on it the whole day without realizing that the water is wasting.
The author is a youth activist who participates in many different south Sudanese youth platforms and he is as well a freelance writer in matters pertinent to politics, justice, peace and equality for all south Sudanese. You can follow him on twitter @kuach444 or write him an email on [email protected].