South Sudan: Reasons why peace is likely to be signed or collapse

By Peter Gai Manyuon

May 16, 2018 (SSNA) — In fact, the crisis of South Sudan was caused by suspicion of the unknown among the so-called SPLM leaders in 2013.  The ongoing peace talks or side meetings in Ethiopian Capital Addis Ababa might not bring a genuine peace and stability in South Sudan unless otherwise, President Trump of United States go to Addis Ababa by himself to witness what is currently going on among the SPLM factions or serious measures are taken by the world. So far, the SPLM factions are only looking for what accommodates them not what benefits common citizens in the Country.

On the same note, the issue of setting up the hybrid court is not in the interest of the SPLM factions mainly, SPLM in government and SPLM in opposition since all the groups or factions committed crimes against humanity in one way or the other. What likely the two rivals are looking for is forming a government where they could continue looting the country resources together like what they did since 2005-2018 respectively. According to their supporter’s comments on various social media platforms, any agreement that doesn’t recognize Salva Kiir Mayardit and Dr. Riek Machar is not an agreement. The two factions of the SPLMs (SPLM in government and SPLM in Opposition) are confusing their supporters day by day or their supporters are confusing.

Another issue could be their family’s resources that might be frozen and restriction of their travels in different parts of the world in case, the two main parties to this crisis doesn’t agree on the peaceful resolution of four years crisis. Furthermore, the issue of two (First Vice President, Vice President) if not handle well in the peace talks will lead to the collapse of the peace talks in Addis unless if the two groups compromise on the two positions than, peace will be sign automatically.

Kiir and his group, on the other hand, wanted to be in top leadership of the Country in order to sabotage any accountability likewise, Dr. Machar wanted to be in the top leadership in order to protect himself using the little resources he might get in the process of running the government of National Unity with Kiir. In fact, the two leaders of the SPLMs main factions wanted to work together again, it’s only their supporters and the G10 or G6 that wanted the government without the two which is impossible at the moment.

The two leaders (Kiir and Machar) will be forced to work together by the issue of accountability since the two doesn’t want this issue of accountability to block their ways in the coming elections.

On the other hand, Kiir himself is under serious threat from the world regarding the setting up of hybrid court and as well Dr. Machar is partially in support while in fact, he doesn’t want accountability since both looked at the accountability as the threat to their ambitions of contesting any future elections in the Country. They don’t know organizing election will come after the full agreement and from there, the world will decide to engage the two to account for what transpired since 2013-2018 or more. The issue of elections should be left to the citizens of South Sudan but currently, the two leaders are soon facing serious isolations from the world and regional leaders, if they are not careful.

Evidently, the two are having serious threats from Trump administration and therefore, their only focus at the moment is how to tackle this issue of peace initiative and thereafter; they will do away with accountability or any threat regarding their positions.

Hence, those are the issues that might affect any progress in Ethiopia or bring peace in the Country in one way or the other. Partially, President Kiir doesn’t want any negotiation since he believed on President Museveni support while on the other hand, the opposition of Dr. Machar only believed on the Trump recent comments toward the government of Kiir in Juba nothing else. However, the two groups are believing in lies and unknown support, what they don’t know is that, the United States doesn’t want anyone from the so-called SPLMs to lead the Country but since the entire population of the Country divided themselves mainly on the two rivals (Kiir and Machar), they will be compiled to sign any peace whether shaky or genuine and thereafter, serious measures will be taken against them by the world.

Obviously, what is prolonging the crisis in South Sudan is due to the fact that, International community haven’t identified the right choice of the candidate who could unite the Country. All groups of the SPLMs that have divided into two SPLM-IG, SPLM IO, SPLM FDs and other stranded briefcase parties have the same vision and philosophy of looting resources and human resource.

Meanwhile, the group of G10 or G6 are seen as the corrupts leaders in the country and they have lost the market both internationally, regionally and locally even though they are trying to look for the top leadership in the Country, they lack focus and direction politically and each one of them for himself or herself. More so, the so-called SPLM FDs are nowhere in politics currently because eighty percent (80%) of them are criminals being blacklisted for the crimes related to corruption in South Sudan.

In addition, the regional body only interested in prolonging the conflict since the Country has become a center for businesses and exploitation in the region. Unquestionably, leaders in South Sudan lack political ideologies rather, what they only focus on is divisive politics characterized by hooliganism, sectarian politics, desperation, primitiveness and worshipping idols.

Similarly, these constituents of SPLMs (SPLM in government, SPLM in opposition, SPLM former detainees) and other small SPLM elements that have formed different factions using other names are confusing masses by dividing themselves in to different SPLMs, but all have the same philosophy or ideology of looting the country resources, killing civilians and enriching themselves with positions and wealth’s. All of them are visionless who only look for what benefits them not the Country or civil population.

In conclusion, the International Community should impose serious attention on these different factions of the SPLMs to sign an agreement and after six (6) months or one (1) year later, the world must question the top leaders of all these parties to account for the war crimes committed, crimes against humanity and cases related to corruption in the Country. The world should compile these goons of the SPLMs into an agreement so that peace return to the Country. Within the next one year, world or region should come up with political tactics to silence these very groups in the elections by engaging them with accountability so that, young leaders could come up in the Country.

Peter Gai Manyuon is an author, Independent Journalist, and Columnist who has written extensively on Human Rights and Democracy in South Sudan. He can be reached at [email protected] or www.independentjournalistpgm.wordpress.com